Predictions for 2011
Monday, January 3rd, 2011Siamese Cat Pennant
Predictions for 2011
Making predictions is always dangerous. No matter how many of your predictions turn out true, you will be remembered for those predictions that were dead wrong. So, in spite of that knowledge, here are some predictions from me.
The Economy
The economy will continue to improve. No surprise here. The majority of the US population that is regularly employed with decent health benefits may actually think that the good times have returned. For the 10% to 20% who are either unemployed or under employed, it will be another year of recession. This latter segment is easily forgotten, because they do not have lawyers, lobbyists or representatives in Congress to demand services, jobs, or even a glimmer of hope. My specific prediction is that the recession will be declared over, even though millions are still unemployed or underemployed without benefits.
What Congress Will Actually Do
I was amazed at how much the lame duck Congress accomplished, when they were under a severe deadline. You can debate, whether or not the extension of the tax cuts to all Americans (including all billionaires) was a victory for the Republicans or Democrats. The latter got unemployment benefits extended & a few other goodies. Gays clearly won a long term goal with repeal of “Don’t ask, don’t tell” in the military. 9/11 responders will get new benefits. So much happened in such a short time, because a number of Republicans voted along with the Democrats on each of these issues.
I predict that the new Congress will return to the era of partisan warfare with Democrats on the left and Republicans on the right refusing to yield an inch. No major legislation, neither progressive nor reactionary will pass Congress. The health care reform, passed in the last Congress, will be severely challenged, but will survive. The more people become familiar with its specific provisions, the more they will like it.
Budget cutting will be symbolic rather than substantive. Few members of Congress will actually want to cut social security, and other popular social programs. The elderly vote and will remember those who tried to screw them.
2012
2012 is a presidential election year, plus all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the US Senate will be up for re-election. Every politician has one goal. That is to get re-elected. Assuming the economy continues to improve, Obama will be in good shape to get re-elected. The Democrats will make gains in the house of Representative, but will not win a majority. The Senate will remain Democratic and more moderate than either the Republicans or Democrats in the House.
It will take a billion or more dollars in campaign spending to produce this relatively static result. At the end of 2012, it will still be the same old divided politics.